Monday, June 20, 2005

Stocks Modestly Lower Mid-day on Rising Energy Prices

Indices
S&P 500 1,213.93 -.25%
DJIA 10,588.01 -.33%
NASDAQ 2,087.03 -.15%
Russell 2000 642.87 -.20%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,042.58 -.21%
S&P Barra Growth 581.80 -.24%
S&P Barra Value 627.91 -.25%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 583.43 -.22%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 739.70 -.55%
Morgan Stanley Technology 482.69 +.15%
Transports 3,570.76 -.59%
Utilities 377.57 -.03%
Put/Call 1.03 unch.
NYSE Arms .91 +16.18%
Volatility(VIX) 11.58 +.87%
ISE Sentiment 145.00 +35.51%
US Dollar 88.48 +.95%
CRB 312.51 +.49%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.00 +.99%
Unleaded Gasoline 164.60 -.07%
Natural Gas 7.60 -1.17%
Heating Oil 166.00 +.50%
Gold 440.10 +.02%
Base Metals 127.34 +.09%
Copper 158.75 -1.03%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.09% +.71%

Leading Sectors
Broadcasting +2.17%
Airlines +1.71%
Biotech +.74%

Lagging Sectors
Gold & Silver -1.23%
Homebuilders -1.56%
Steel -2.85%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day on losses in my Software and Homebuilding longs. I pared a few longs this morning and added NUE short, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. I am using a $55 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is modestly negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are higher and volume is light. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is neutral, considering another move higher in energy and disappointing Leading Indicator report. According to the Washington Service, insiders in the energy sector sold more than in any other S&P 500 sector last week. There were no buys and $76,200,943 in sells. Energy-related companies with the most pronounced insider selling last week include: Amerada Hess (AHC), Transocean (RIG), Burlington Resources (BR), EOG Resources (EOG) and National-Oilwell Varco (NOV). I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close on short-covering and pullback in long-term rates from session highs.

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