Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Mideast War Resumption Fears, Surging Oil, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Transport/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -80 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -180 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -3 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +49 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/energy sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 25% net long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AZN)/2.59
• (VZ)/1.27 

After the Close: 

• (AMKR)/.78
• (BRO)/1.09
• (CDNS)/2.05
• (GBX)/.80
• (HIG)/3.17
• (NE)/.23
• (NUE)/5.84
• (PSMT)/1.27
• (PSA)4.25
• (WELL)/1.64
• (WHR)/.80 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Sept. is estimated to fall to -.1 from -.04 in Aug. 

10:00 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Oct.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 2Y T-Note auction and (AI) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• The Houthis were once a ragtag rebel movement in northern Yemen. Under the reclusive Abdulmalik al-Houthi, they’ve become a regional power whose attacks can reverberate far beyond their home country. 
• The gap between French and German bond yields has widened sharply again, setting a fresh post-2011 high, as investors continue to worry about the country’s fragile finances. Calming markets will involve some tricky political balancing acts. 
• The Trump administration is seeking to restrict American investment in Chinese biotechnology companies, potentially complicating financial ties at a time when US drugmakers are increasingly turning to China for new medicines.      
• SK Hynix has scrapped plans for a US listing of its Solidigm flash-memory unit after facing strong shareholder opposition and regulatory scrutiny over concerns that the move could undermine minority investor interests.
• More than three-quarters of data centers set to be built around Australia’s biggest cities are at risk from stretched power grids and local opposition, threatening the country’s ambition to become an AI hub for the Asia Pacific region. 
• New residential construction slides to pandemic-era level. 
• The White House is reviewing a proposal to broaden access to peptides that includes more patient protections than initially expected, according to people familiar with the matter. 
• Bill Ackman called on the Trump administration to release Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship, warning that a Democrat-controlled government could weaponize the entities against Republicans. 
• We’ve reached a new and much more difficult funding stage. 
• President Donald Trump said he will hold off on imposing tariffs on wind turbines and their components on national security grounds. 
• Hedge funds are piling into stock shorts, pushing bearish bets near a five-year high. Plus the debate over AI is keeping IPOs stuck on the launch pad. 
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day: Morning Briefing Asia.  

• @ZeroHedge

• Brazil's Diesel Cliff Has An Expiry Date: Goldman Says Petrobras Needs A ~50% Hike... Right After The Election.
• Increasingly Toxic To Candidates, Pro-Israel AIPAC Retreats From Endorsements And Direct Donations. 
• Kushner Denies Bombshell Book Claims Of Secret Gulf-Funded Accounts. 
• California Officials Blame 'Vendor Error' For Sending Thousands Of Duplicate Ballots.
• Florida Mayor Charged With Grand Theft From COVID Relief Program She Helped Create.
• "Melting Wax-Faced Goblin" Calls For "Pistols Firing At All Times" At Vance.
• UN Says 8,513 Casualties In Yemen Since August, Over 250K Displaced.   
• Hedging The AI Bust: Goldman FICC Says Look To Tokyo As France Goes "Orbital.
• SPACEX IS IN TALKS TO ACCESS 80,000 CELL SITES FOR NEW NETWORK.
• GTA VI Fever Takes Hold: US PlayStation 5 Sales Surge Ahead Of Blockbuster Launch.
• October Election Surprise Season Is Here!
• TRUMP INVOKES DEFENSE PRODUCTION ACT FOR PETROLEUM CAPACITY.
• Still 'A Very High Mountain Ahead' To Achieve Ukraine Peace: Vance.
• Are Radicals Training In Paris?
• Saudi Aramco Evacuates HQ, All Staff Put On Remote Work. 
• Major US Banks Are Detecting Unauthorized AI Agents Accessing Customer Accounts. 
• *OPENAI NEARS UP TO $30B FUNDING ROUND AT $1.25T VALUATION:CNBC.
• Zuck'd: Tech Wrecks As AI Credit Cracks Widen; Bonds Panic-Bid, Bitcoin & Bullion Battered.                    

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: AI spending fears haunt markets before Halloween. 
• Japan core inflation in September surges to its highest this year at 2.1%.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed after tech sector sell-off: Live updates.    
• Stocks making the biggest moves in after hours: Western Digital, Bloom Energy, Deckers Outdoor & more.
• Wealthy Chinese move offshore money to U.S. banks as Beijing’s tax net widens.  

• @WallStEngine

• SpaceX $SPCX is finalizing a $40 billion debt raise at sharply higher borrowing costs than its previous financing, according to Semafor. The lowest-rated portion is expected to carry an interest rate of around 8.3%, while a safer portion backed by AI chips could price near 7.75%. The safer portion is expected to price more than 1 percentage point above where SpaceX's existing bonds trade.
• COMFORT SYSTEMS USA $FIX Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $3.77B (Est. $3.4B) ; +50% YoY. EPS: $13.91 (Est. $12.85) ; +70% YoY. Gross Margin: 24.8%. Operating Cash Flow: $1.01B; +83% YoY. Backlog: $17.81B; +90% YoY. 
• DECKERS $DECK Q2’27 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $1.48B (Est. $1.51B) ; +3.5% YoY. EPS: $2.31 (Est. $1.79) ; incl. tariff refund. Gross Margin: 60.5%; incl. tariff refund. Oper Income: $389.5M (Est. $309M) ; w/ refund.
• BLOOM ENERGY $BE Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $1.24B (Est. $1.05B) ; +138.1% YoY. Adj. EPS: $0.94 (Est. $0.68). GAAP EPS: $0.78. Adj. Gross Margin: 34.5%; +412 bps YoY. 
• RINGCENTRAL $RNG Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $676M (Est. $667M) ; +5.9% YoY. Adj. EPS: $1.33 (Est. $1.28) ; +18% YoY. GAAP EPS: $6.50; includes valuation allowance release. Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 24.7%; +190 bps YoY. 
• WESTERN DIGITAL $WDC Q1’27 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $4.38B (Est. $4.13B) ; +55% YoY. Adj. EPS: $4.64 (Est. $4.07) ; +161% YoY. GAAP EPS: $4.63. Adj. Gross Margin: 58.1%; +1,420 bps YoY. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.25% to -.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.5 +4.25 basis points  
• China Sovereign CDS 39.25 +1.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 90.90 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%. 
• Crude Oil 100.30/bbl. +.8%. 
• Gold 4,034.0 USD/t oz. -.68%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.12 +.1%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.52 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.8 -1.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.96% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.82 -9.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.5 +.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -08%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.06%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and metals & mining shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Mideast War Resumption Fears, Surging Eurozone Sovereign Debt Angst, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Worries, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.1 +2.9%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 66.2 +2.0% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .41 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .04 -2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.3 +4.7% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 170.0 +4.3% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 63.0 +3.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 84.3 -2.8

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.0 +2.5

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.9 -1.5

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.2 -1.1
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(113 of 500 reporting) +38.3% +1.2 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 411.75 +.32:  Growth Rate +25.4% unch., P/E 18.6 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.36% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +499.8% -103.1 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,092.71 +.38: Growth Rate +62.7% -.1 percentage point, P/E 16.8 -.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.2 +2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 30.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.2 -1.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 91.1 euros/megawatt-hour +4.2%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 10.6% +.3%
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.5% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.96% -16.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.03 +1.0 basis point

• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 73.8% (-2.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 56.7%(+12.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -200 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -33 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -13 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +109 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -3.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Lithography/Photonics -9.0% 2) Space -7.6% 3) Alt Energy -4.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LB, MSGS, ARMK, ERO, BAP, MLI, EGO, RBC, BWXT, EME, FUTU, SPXC, LBRT, ALMR, WWD, IR, FLS, ETN, NEXA, CLMT, IESC, HWM, PRIM, PLXS, FR, KYIV, ASTS, RGT, WDC, CRBS, AMAT, ANET, THRM, PH, WCC, QNT, HIMX, SCCO, HIMX, ARIS, META, NBIS, HSAI, KEYS, STX, VRT, APH, CDE, TLN, ROG, MOG/A, GFS, HBM, IREN, PWR, TXG, SPCX, KLAC, Q, FIX, SKE, LFUS, CR, LSCC, ESI, SANM, CIEN, APLD, VECO, TER, MKSI, AYA, ZLAB, FLEX, ONTO, VST, ECG, CRWV, FEIM, GLXY, STRL, ASX, GEV, BE, POWL, EZPW, PENG, FCEL, LRCX, WULF, CLS, TH, LITE, TSEM, LGN, ATI, ENTG, INIO, AAOI, NVT, AEIS, COHR, BAND, ICHR, MSM, FCFS, VIAV, CECO, UCTT, SIMO, GGG, OII, SEI, VICR, COHU, CRS, KALU, MRNA, FPS and TTMI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KSS 2) XLY 3) FPS 4) TSEM 5) HWM

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MRNA 2) NVEC 3) FCEL 4) FLNC 5) ASTS

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLU 2) XLV 3) XLF 4) XLE 5) XLY

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +3.0% 2) Foods +2.7% 3) Insurance +2.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BHVN, MLTX, EGBN, KSS, HCSG, GSHD, SPOT, WCN, POOL, BMI, Z, ROP, AVEX, RTO, BL, WGO, MNDY, RH, AMN, R, LEN, SSL, FTDR, EFX, LAD, MHO, WHR, BX, KBH, CWST, NDAQ, CSX, NRDS, TRI, RKT, CELC, BBT, PG, KBR, ADBE, ZGN, BETR, LGIH, WSO, ABG, VLY, BETR, TRU, HURN, STVN, CNOB, ATEC, ARHS, TCBI, ROL, CENTA, QLYS, BIIB, ALC, TSCO, NHP, PHM, ACI, ULTA, CHKP, EROK, SONY, RAPP, APPN, SAP and QLYS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FHN 2) UAL 3) TTMI 4) TSEM 5) SOLS 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SMCI 2) SPCX 3) CRDO 4) MARA 5) INSW

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) ALAI 2) XLI 3) SMH 4) KBWB 5) VOX

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume