Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• President Donald Trump’s intensifying economic campaign against Iran is testing the limits of the security grouping Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have spent years expanding as a counterweight to US power. 
• The US plans to use its newfound assertion of control over billions of barrels of Venezuelan crude oil to refill the nation’s depleted emergency reserve, President Donald Trump said Sunday.
• Ontario Premier Doug Ford ridiculed President Donald Trump’s order changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America, while expressing optimism that Canada and the US would eventually overcome their differences on trade and tariffs. 
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 

• @Zerohedge 

• Central Asia Resists US Pressure To Choose Sides In AI Race. 
• Goldman derivatives head Brian Garrett: "many thought a hawkish Jackson hole could bring longer end yields lower given increase in perceived fed credibility/independence, the opposite happened (10y 4bps higher on the session, and now 25bps higher on the quarter)." 
• Federal Court Rules Sexual AI Images Of Children Are Legal To Possess. 
• BRENT OIL GAINS 2% AT OPEN AFTER US STRIKES IRANIAN LAUNCHERS. 
• Pentagon Strikes Iranian Island Target, In First US Military Action In Weeks. 
• The Mother Of All Mean Reversions: Commodities Have Never Been This Cheap Versus Stocks. 
• 'No End In Sight': Democrats Make Trump Foreign Policy A Central Issue After 6-Months Of Iran War.
• "Profound Game-Changer": Musk Launching New Turbine Blade Factory To Solve Shortage Threatening AI Boom.
• Why Morgan Stanley Is Keeping An Eye On The Fed's Balance Sheet After Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech.
• Iranian Gasoline Shortages Grow As US Blockade Bites.
• Druckenmiller Warning: The Bond Market Already Priced It.
• Fly British Flags In UK And Face Jail... But Pakistan And Palestine Flags Get A Pass.
• *TRUMP: TO FILL UP STRATEGIC NATIONAL RESERVES W/ VENEZUELA OIL.
• El Nino Fuels Atlantic Hurricane Drought As Dolly Eyes Florida.
• As Warsh Clears One Risk, Focus Now Shifts To Waller And Data.
• Taxpayers Lost $65 Billion On Obamacare Fraud Last Year.
• An Illegal Migrant Tried To Saw Off A Man's Head; You Won't Believe What The BBC Did Next...           
• 'Chexit': Global Asset Managers Are Fleeing China.
• AI Skepticism Outweighs Excitement In The US. 
• Meta Tests Robots That Can Swap Cables And Reset Servers At Its Data Centers.  
• What Happened To The So-Called AI Job Apocalypse?  
• The Monumental Mistake Of Raising Rates In September. 
• You Should Feel Good About The Flock Debate. 

• @CNBC 

• CNBC Daily Open: War by other means turns to armed conflict — again. 
• Stock futures are little changed as traders get set to wrap up a winning month: Live updates.
• U.S. plans to sanction another bank in effort to clamp down on Iran transactions: Bessent.
• China’s manufacturing activity in August shrank for a second straight month, though by less than market estimates, keeping the pressure on Beijing to support the economy as growth loses momentum. 
• U.S. strikes Iranian rocket launchers near Strait of Hormuz.
• What new tariff walls in U.S.-Canada trade war mean for the economy's critical metals.       

• @Wallstengine

• Elon Musk says ~15 GW of AI compute coming online in 2027 could remain stranded because the supporting infrastructure, from power and transformers to cooling and networking, may not be ready in time.

• @EricLDaugh

• BOMBSHELL: Los Angeles County is STEALING funds from a wildfire relief fund to give up to $15K CHECKS to noncitizens or residents "impacted by ICE raids". All "without checking the recipient's immigration status". $5 MILLION has already been redirected. THIS IS OUTRAGEOUS! 600 days, most LA residents still can't even return to their homes after they were lost to the wildfires. But now money might be handed out to noncitizens? California is AMERICANS LAST! (video)

• @LaraLogan

• Well done for doing this - makes my blood boil all over again. Watching them lie was like living in an alternate reality - so many people were blinded/deceived & untold damage was done to vulnerable populations all over the world, not to mention to generations of young people who grew up with anxiety because they were told the planet was imploding. And all the billions they stole from taxpayers for their BS green technology slush fund. (video)

• @HealthRanger

• LMAO. Now they've found bird flu (lol) in ants. Because it's all a fraud to begin with. Next they'll find it in pineapples. (pic)

• @EmeraldRobinson

• 10. Here's how America's intelligence agencies took over Western corporate media at every level. This is important to remember when you consider the Great Reset and the COVID vaccine depopulation plan. (video) 

• @stkirsch

• States are demanding that the Amish get vaccinated in order to eliminate the control group. Otherwise the states look really bad.

• @ImBreckWorsham

• "The goal is to extract money from the US and Europe through Ukraine and return it to the hands of a transnational elite (Globalist Agenda 2030)." "The goal is not to win any war, but to maintain permanent conflicts that feed that power circuit" "The Objective is an endless war, not a successful war." -Julian Assange. (video)

• @GuntherEagleman

• RFK JR. JUST SAID THE QUIET PART OUT LOUD. Kids are getting COLON CANCER. He told a surgeon in Tampa: This used to be almost UNHEARD OF in children. It isn’t anymore. Soft tissue cancers exploding. Colorectal cancer in young people. Then he named names: Ultra-processed food. Pesticides. Iowa — fastest rising cancer rates. Kentucky right behind it. NIH should’ve studied this 20 years ago. They’re doing it NOW. Kids don’t get old-man cancer by accident. Something in the food is killing us.

• @BullTheoryio

• BREAKING: Wheat prices have exploded 35% in just the last 2 months as US wheat production hits its lowest level since 1971. US wheat stockpiles are set to drop 22% this year, down to 722 million bushels.

• @sayerjigmi

• Imagine Governor Josh Shapiro vaporizing his entire political career over "measles deaths" misinformation? You just have to scratch the surface to discover the motivation: billions of dollars of Pharma revenue, and half the countries vaccines produced in your home state.....

• @DrDMartinWorld

• Don't forget that all these crimes happened BEFORE January 1, 2014... no autopen can fix that, only negligence by Congress and the DoJ can let this pass unaccounted for. (pic)

• @JackPosobiec

• Did You Know: Joseph McCarthy warned that communists were infiltrating the librarians and teacher’s unions to propagandize the youth. This is why they taught you to hate him. (video)

• @Megatron_ron

• The organization of the now-deceased Charlie Kirk, TPUSA, has begun displaying the Israeli flag at its performances. (pic)

• @Polymarket

• BREAKING: Florida issues mosquito-borne illness alerts as “breakbone fever” spreads, causing fever & severe muscle & joint pain.

• @mirandadevine  

• "Feminist icon" NY Governor Hochul just put on a hijab for Muslim men. Less than two weeks until the 25th anniversary of 9/11. (video)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.75% to -.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 35.25 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%.
• Crude Oil 85.55/bbl. +2.6%
• Gold 4,476.9 USD/t oz. -1.2% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.32 unch. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.23 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 129.1 -.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.71% -1.0 basis point. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.16% +3.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.4 +2.6%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.46%.
• S&P 500 futures -.44%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.62%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Around X:

• @Zerohedge 

• Pezeshkian Says Iran To Increase Gasoline Prices, Coupled With Rare Admission About US Sanctions. 
• They Know It Would Trigger Mass Unrest... 
• Iran's Ghalibaf Declares Persian Gulf Oil Flows For 'All Or None'. 
• How Much Gas Prices Have Risen Since The Iran War. 
• Trump Establishes Space Academy, Awards Medals Of Honor To Artemis II Astronauts. 
• 50 Survival Lessons From The Great Depression: The Horrifying Things Americans Did When Money, Jobs, & Hope Disappeared. 
• China Ousts 4 Senior Military Commanders In Widening Purges. 
• Brazil's Socialist President Sees Lead Disappear As Bolsonaro Heir Turns Presidential Election Into Coin Toss. 
• The War Hawks' Predictions Have Aged Like Milk. 
• Study Finds Gender Ideology Fuels Support For Left-Wing Political Violence. 
• A Trillion Dollar Budget But Military Can't 'Afford' To Attack Mold On Bases? 
• DC Jury Nullification Even Protects International Gang Lords. 
• First Secondary Sanctions Applied: US Blocks Egyptian Bank From Accessing Dollars Over 'Iran Ties'.    
• Republicans Pitch Plan To Protect Investments From 'Inflation Tax': What To Know. 
• Trump Strikes "Biggest Oil Deal In History": US To Take Majority Stake In Over 65BN Barrels Of Venezuela Reserves.
• Geothermal Power Is Emerging As An AI Energy Source For The Trump Administration.
• The Iran War Has Turned VLCCs Into $650,000-A-Day Assets.
• Bessent's War On Left-Wing NGOs May Strip Soros Network, SPLC, And CAIR Of Tax-Exempt Status: Report.
• China's Solar Boom Hits A Wall As Industry Losses Mount.
• Milo Yiannopoulos Detained by ICE After Overstaying Visa, Faces Deportation.
• FDA Approves 3 New COVID-19 Vaccines.
• Goldman Traders' Top Charts: Record Returns, Record Debt, & A Market Supported By Fewer & Fewer Stocks.
• Welcome To FAFOland.     
• Trump Takes A Cleaver To "Big Meat" Monopoly, Moves To Let Mom-And-Pop Ranchers Process Own Meat. 
• Another Two Historic Churches Explode Into Flames... 
• Hormuz, Huang, & Hawks: Slow Summer Week Ends In Chaos After J-Hole.

• @BarronsOnline

• Had bullish commentary on (FCFS) and (FWONA).

• @IGSquawk 

• Weekend markets update: #DAX 26563 -0.03% #DOW 53584 +0.05% #NASDAQ 29460 +0.01% #FTSE 10820 -0.03% #HANGSENG 25549 -0.02% #EURUSD 11583 +0.01% #GOLD 4468 +0.29% #SILVER 6639 -0.03% #USOIL 8243 -0.70%.
• Crypto update: #Bitcoin 78018.00 +0.76% #Ether 2450.30 +0.91% #Cardano 0.2005 -0.64% #BitcoinCash 245.71 -0.94% #Litecoin 48.84 -1.47% #Stellar 0.1789 +0.34% #Dogecoin 0.0851 +0.35% #Uniswap 4.6229 +5.12% #Chainlink 11.4149 +0.48% #Polkadot 0.8395 -0.74% #Solana 104.8300 +0.94% #Avalanche 7.3000 +0.27%.

• @MJTruthUltra

• Anna Paulina says major disclosure is coming on influencers who are paid from foreign entities. That’s cool @realannapaulina … can we also do influencers who are paid by the U.S. Government? That’s just as equally important. Who else agrees? (pic).

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• Meanwhile in Switzerland. The Swiss now join France, Italy & Spain in experiencing abnormal oversized hail the size of Tennis Balls. This is always a By-Product of extreme Geo-Engineering which is of course why you are seeing so much of it & never used to witness anything like it. (video)
• The Eyes are useless if the Mind is Blind. Truly insane how everyone on the Planet isn’t talking about this every day. (video) 

• @TheSCIF

• BREAKING: DR. FAUCI caught COVERING UP an NIH email PROVING that he knew what he was doing with COVID was in fact GAIN-OF-FUNCTION research. He explicitly told his aide to PERMANENTLY delete the email relating to the gain-of-function comment, adding more to the enormous pile of deleted records proving that Fauci knew a lot more about the dangers and reality of COVID than he was releasing to the public. People died while FAUCI and others got rich. Prosecute FAUCI!

• @NicHulscher

• Bill Gates is now warning of imminent AI bioterror attacks... right after he funded the first-ever use of AI to create synthetic viruses capable of replicating. He's “sounding the alarm” over the very capability his own foundation helped bring into existence. (video).

• @ConstitutionX

• LOCK HIM UP. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro just got CAUGHT red-handed fabricating “measles deaths” of two newborns to smear RFK Jr. The coroner already said it: one baby died from a spleen laceration, NOT measles. They still slapped “unvaccinated” on infants too young to even GET the measles shot. This wasn’t a mistake. This was the COVID playbook on steroids — fear, headlines, political blood. Then damage control the second the facts came out. He tried to pin dead newborns on the Health Secretary. That is not governing. That is a smear. RESIGN is too light. LOCK. HIM. UP. (video)

• @LibsOftiktok

• Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson says he won't let businesses operate in his city unless company leaders "reflect the diversity of the community". This sounds both racist and illegal. (video)

• @KanekoaTheGreat

• Someone gave the leading AI models the Political Compass test. Grok 4.5 landed by far closest to the political center. Every model from Anthropic, Google, Meta, OpenAI, Deepseek, and others clustered far to the left. This is why building a maximally truth-seeking AI matters. (pic)

• @ConservativeTht

• Chinese children are taught robotics, advanced mathematics, programming & AI. American public school kids (depending on the state) are taught that gender is a choice, rainbow flags are great, American flags are racist and how to be a social Justice warrior. If sanity does not return to public education, the United States is going to become a 3rd rate power. We owe it to our children to fix this before it is too late. (video)

• @AGHamilton29

• X has now confirmed a Chinese bot farm of 200K fake accounts intentionally trying to manipulate public opinion against data centers. People might want to consider how common this has become and how it is manipulating multiple policy discussions on social media. (pic)

• @liz_Churchill10

• Just shut up Bill Gates. Your Epstein emails prove you were Simulating Pandemics, investing in ‘Vaccines’…while you discussed how to ‘Get rid of the Poor People’. You’re not a Philanthropist…you’re a Disease Terrorist…that colluded with the World’s most prolific Sex Trafficker.

• @Barchart

• S&P Agriculture Index has now traded green for 11 straight days, its longest winning streak this century.

• @Polymarket

• JUST IN: Trade unions threaten to withhold political support from candidates opposing data centers, warning thousands of blue-collar jobs could be lost.

• @HighWireTalk

• On the heels of the measles debacle, we also have this: Pennsylvania's Department of Health wants to change one word in its regulations to allow officials to enter your apartment without a warrant. Right now, the rule says people can't stop a health official from entering during an outbreak investigation, and only after officials have judged the situation an actual threat. The new version flips that into a direct grant of entry power, drops the requirement to judge it a real threat first, and expands what counts as a reason to enter beyond infectious disease to include things like chemical or lead exposure.

• @nicksortor

• LMAO! AOC whipped out her BLACK ACCENT today while speaking to a crowd of Al Sharpton's bussed-in black folks in DC. And SEVERAL TIMES the "accent" started slipping, causing her to stutter. These people are so fake. "There is a TIIIIDE RISIN' in this country, brothers and sisters. They can put p-p-ah uh, they can put obstacles in our path, but they cannot turn us back around!".

• @EmeraldRobinson

• 14. So when you read an email from pedophile Jeffrey Epstein (recruited by David Rockefeller to Trilateral Commission!) discussing "future pandemics" with WHO officials in 2015, you know the global depopulation plan has started. That's why FBI/CIA did not want these emails released.

• @unusual_whales

• "Stocks would fall over 10%" if Democrats take the Senate," per Bank of America's Hartnett.

• @amuse

• DATA CENTERS: Not only is China funneling millions of dollars to NGOs to spread anti-data center propaganda, they're directly funding influencers and operating massive bot networks. The extent of their efforts shows just how important it is to win the AI race.

• @LaraLogan

• One of the most shocking things I’ve seen in Ukraine - seemed too incredible to be real but it is: how could any govt be kidnapping its citizens, forcing them kicking, screaming & crying to go fight/die against their will? And no one says a thing about this? No human rights group? NO ONE? Where is the outrage from world leaders? From the world? WHY ARE WE - AMERICAN TAXPAYERS - STILL FUNDING THESE PSYCOPATHS? (video)

• @ChrisMartzWX

• I think that Trump renaming Lake Ontario to Lake America is pointless and stupid. Wanna know what else I think is dumb? The fact left-wingers are triggered about this after they spent the last decade plus renaming sports teams, public schools and universities, streets and highways, food and condiment brands, and redefining half the dictionary altogether. Here’s a list of some in case you forgot:.

• @RedWavePress

• HILARIOUS: Bill Maher: “Trump is so mad at Canada, he renamed Lake Ontario Lake America… Liberals are very pissed at this. They say you can’t just go around renaming to suit your political agenda. Just ask any Latinx birthing person.” NUKED! (video)

OpenVAERS:  

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,033,983 Reports (+194 from prior report) Through June 26th, 2026.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.