Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:     

• Chinese Outbound M&A Plummets as Trade War Keeps Companies at Home.

• China Bond Defaults Are Looking Less Scary. Why That Won’t Last.

• Donald Trump Takes Center Stage on July 4th With Jets, Tanks and Fireworks. 

• Asia Stocks Set for Muted Start as Jobs Data Loom. Asian stocks looked set for a muted start to trading with no direction from their U.S. counterparts thanks to the American holiday. The dollar was flat as investors await the key U.S. jobs report Friday. Futures in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong were little changed, as were U.S. contracts. European shares drifted Thursday in a lackluster session marked by thin trading volumes. Core bonds in the region climbed, with German 10-year yields dipping below the European Central Bank’s deposit rate for the first time. Treasuries weren’t trading thanks to Independence Day. Gold slipped but stayed above $1,400. Oil futures fell, even amid further Middle East tensions, with the British seizure of an Iranian vessel. Nikkei 225 futures were little changed. S&P/ASX 200 futures were flat. Hang Seng futures were flat. Futures on the S&P 500 Index increased 0.1%.

• Five Things to Start Your Day.

Wall Street Journal:

• Squeezed by U.S. Sanctions, Iran Shifts From Patience to Confrontation.

• Farmers Built a Soybean Export Empire Around China. Now They’re Fighting to Save It.

• Homeland Security Chief Takes Border Focus Farther South.

• EU Compromise Exposes Merkel’s Waning Influence.

Fox News:

• Trump delivers 'Salute to America' speech in DC, celebrating the spirit of every American.

• Anti-Defamation League weighs in on Betsy Ross flag debate.

CNBC:

• 
  Wall Street analysts are crazy about these stocks and see big upside in the next 12 months.
  

Zero Hedge:

• Obama DHS Chief Says 2020 Democrats Have "Unworkable" And "Unwise" Immigration Positions.

• Global Chip Supply In Jeopardy As New Trade Feud Erupts Between Japan And South Korea.

• Clothing Line Releases Betsy Ross Flag-Themed Sneakers As Nike Recall Theirs.

• Strongest Earthquake In Decades Rocks Southern California On July 4th.

• Watch Live: Trump Delivers Independence Day Salute To America.

• Florida Democrat: We Should Prosecute Anyone Who "Makes Fun" Of Members Of Congress.

• This Isn't About Sneakers, But People Who Want "No USA At All".

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.0 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 40.75 -1.5 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  67.79 -.02%.

• S&P 500 futures +.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.18%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for June is estimated at 162K versus 75K in May.

• The Unemployment Rate for June is estimated at 3.6% versus 3.6% in May.

• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in May.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Factory Orders report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to strengthen into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.