Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Concerns, Oil Decline, Profit-Taking, Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Average
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.0 +2.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.06 -.08%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.95 -.29%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.51 +.15%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +32.5%
  • Total Put/Call .97 +1.04%
  • NYSE Arms 1.30 -12.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.60 +2.12%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 608.0 +.70%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.50 +3.63%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 185.50 -4.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.80 +.90%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 159.77 +.33%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.05 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 3.0 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 24.74 +5.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.0 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.65 -.22%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.14% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 26.0 -.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 117.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.83%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -42.0 +2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -8.80 -1.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -28.60 +2.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.80 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -30 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -33 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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