Monday, July 29, 2019

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on China Trade Deal Worries, Brexit Concerns, Profit-Taking, Energy/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.0 +6.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.94 +.29%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.95 +.29%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.59 -.91%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 63.0 -33.0%
  • Total Put/Call .82 +3.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.36 +44.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.53 +2.72%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 524.0 +.50%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.83 +6.59%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 196.5 +2.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.86 +.62%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 157.17 +.05%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.14 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 2.5 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 14.75 -2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.5 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.29 -.05%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.10% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 20.75 -.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 115.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.75%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -37.4 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -40.90 -3.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -17.5 +2.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.76 -2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +2 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +10 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -2 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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