Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Jitters, Oil Decline, Profit-Taking, Transport/Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.2 +2.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.0 -.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.01 +.43%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.6 +3.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 -11.3%
  • Total Put/Call .96 +7.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.15 -19.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.83 -.19%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 615.0 +1.07%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.26 +1.25%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 188.25 +2.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.78 +1.76%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 160.25 +.44%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.77 -.17%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 3.25 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.25 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.65 +.03%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.12% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 22.0 -4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 115.35 USD/Metric Tonne -.29%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -46.30 -4.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -8.80 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -28.40 +. point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.76 -4.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -69 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -44 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -24 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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