Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, China Trade Deal Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Financial/Industrial Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.65 -6.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.37 -.16%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.92 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.82 -5.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +1.9%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -21.21%
  • NYSE Arms .85 -10.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.88 -3.97%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 647.0 +.48%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.69 -4.80%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 195.75 -4.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.42 -2.62%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 157.11 -1.54%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.0 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 3.0 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 25.50 +6.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.25 -2.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.48 -.40%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.05% +-2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 23.75 +.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 111.65 USD/Metric Tonne -1.37%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -44.90 -2.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -8.50 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -22.8 +1.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.81 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +80 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +24 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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