Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Dovish FOMC Commentary, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Commodity/Tech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.1 -7.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.68 +.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.6 +.93%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.87 -2.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 102.0 +25.9%
  • Total Put/Call .88 -5.38%
  • NYSE Arms .88 unch.
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.67 -2.47%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 610.0 -.02%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.66 -3.89%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 204.25 -4.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.25 -1.68%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 162.19 -2.07%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.84 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 2.25 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 11.25 -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.25 +4.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.61 +.53%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.18% -4.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 22.75 +7.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 114.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.54%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -56.30 +.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -8.90 +4.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -34.60 +.4 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.75 +3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +27 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +31 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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