Thursday, July 18, 2019

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Dovish FOMC Commentary, Earnings Outlooks, Economic Data, Road&Rail/Tech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.6 -3.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.78 -.08%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.03 +.29%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.34 -2.13%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +23.9%
  • Total Put/Call .95 -5.0%
  • NYSE Arms .92 -32.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.27 -2.0%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 632.0 +2.8%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.71 +.73%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.5 -1.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.66 +.14%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 159.21 -1.41%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.77 -.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 3.0 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.5 +3.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.25 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.94 +.42%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.05% -7.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 26.5 +4.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 113.95 USD/Metric Tonne -.57%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -41.50 +4.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -8.80 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -29.80 -1.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.75 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +119 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +28 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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