Thursday, July 25, 2019

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Jitters, Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Commodity/Gaming Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.9 +7.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.80 +.51%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.1 +1.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.1 +5.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 +11.0%
  • Total Put/Call .73 +2.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.22 +22.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.74 +1.62%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 525.0 -18.8%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.05 +2.73%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 188.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.66 -3.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 156.44 +.23%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.94 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 1.75 -1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 18.75 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.37 -.20%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.11% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 22.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 112.68 USD/Metric Tonne +.09%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -40.6 +9.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -39.80 -6.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.7 +.5 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.80 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -106 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -80 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my tech/medical/retail/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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