Tuesday, July 09, 2019

Stocks Finish Slightly Higher on Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Oil Gain, Technical Buying, Technology/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.1 +1.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.68 +.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.57 -1.7%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.8 -1.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 86.0 +41.0%
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 +7.5%
  • NYSE Arms .93 -29.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.83 -1.03%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 610.0 +.3%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.11 +1.11%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 208.75 -6.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.48 +2.18%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 165.69 -.85%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.81 +.1%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 2.5 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 13.0 +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.5 +3.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.27 -.12%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.22% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 15.75 +.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.62%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -56.80 -1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -13.10 -.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -35.0 -.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.72 +2.0 basis points
  • 99.8% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 99.9% chance of cut at October 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -55 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -23 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +8 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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